Socio-environmental modifiers of heat-related mortality in eight Swiss cities: A case time series analysis.

In the light of growing urbanization and projected temperature increases due to climate change, heat-related mortality in urban areas is a pressing public health concern. Heat exposure and vulnerability to heat may vary within cities depending on structural features and socioeconomic factors. This study examined the effect modification of the temperature-mortality association of three socio-environmental factors in eight Swiss cities and population subgroups (<75 and ≥ 75 years, males, females): urban heat islands (UHI) based on within-city temperature contrasts, residential greenness measured as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and neighborhood socioeconomic position (SEP). We used individual death records from the Swiss National Cohort occurring during the warm season (May to September) in the years 2003-2016. We performed a case time series analysis using conditional quasi-Poisson and distributed lag non-linear models with a lag of 0-3 days. As exposure variables, we used daily maximum temperatures (Tmax) and a binary indicator for warm nights (Tmin ≥20 °C). In total, 53,593 deaths occurred during the study period. Overall across the eight cities, the mortality risk increased by 31% (1.31 relative risk (95% confidence interval: 1.20-1.42)) between 22.5 °C (the minimum mortality temperature) and 35 °C (the 99th percentile) for warm-season Tmax. Stratified analysis suggested that the heat-related risk at 35 °C is 26% (95%CI: -4%, 67%) higher in UHI compared to non-UHI areas. Indications of smaller risk differences were observed between the low vs. high greenness strata (Relative risk difference = 13% (95%CI: -11%; 44%)). Living in low SEP neighborhoods was associated with an increased heat related risk in the non-elderly population (<75 years). Our results indicate that UHI are associated with increased heat-related mortality risk within Swiss cities, and that features beyond greenness are responsible for such spatial risk differences.

Explorative Assessment of the Temperature-Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland.

Defining health-based thresholds for effective heat warnings is crucial for climate change adaptation strategies. Translating the non-linear function between heat and health effects into an effective threshold for heat warnings to protect the population is a challenge. We present a systematic analysis of heat indicators in relation to mortality. We applied distributed lag non-linear models in an individual-level case-crossover design to assess the effects of heat on mortality in Switzerland during the warm season from 2003 to 2016 for three temperature metrics (daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature), and various threshold temperatures and heatwave definitions. Individual death records with information on residential address from the Swiss National Cohort were linked to high-resolution temperature estimates from 100 m resolution maps. Moderate (90th percentile) to extreme thresholds (99.5th percentile) of the three temperature metrics implied a significant increase in mortality (5 to 38%) in respect of the median warm-season temperature. Effects of the threshold temperatures on mortality were similar across the seven major regions in Switzerland. Heatwave duration did not modify the effect when considering delayed effects up to 7 days. This nationally representative study, accounting for small-scale exposure variability, suggests that the national heat-warning system should focus on heatwave intensity rather than duration. While a different heat-warning indicator may be appropriate in other countries, our evaluation framework is transferable to any country.

Estimating the health benefits associated with a speed limit reduction to thirty kilometres per hour: A health impact assessment of noise and road traffic crashes for the Swiss city of Lausanne.

Reductions of speed limits for road traffic are effective in reducing casualties, and are also increasingly promoted as an effective way to reduce noise exposure. The aim of this study was to estimate the health benefits of the implementation of 30 km/h speed limits in the city of Lausanne (136'077 inhabitants) under different scenarios addressing exposure to noise and road crashes. The study followed a standard methodology for quantitative health impact assessments to derive the number of attributable cases in relation to relevant outcomes. We compared a reference scenario (without any 30 km/h speed limits) to the current situation with partial speed limits and additional scenarios with further implementation of 30 km/h speed limits, including a whole city scenario. Compared to the reference scenario, noise reduction due to the current speed limit situation was estimated to annually prevent 1 cardiovascular death, 72 hospital admissions from cardiovascular disease, 17 incident diabetes cases, 1'127 individuals being highly annoyed and 918 individuals reporting sleep disturbances from noise. Health benefits from a reduction in road traffic crashes were less pronounced (1 severe injury and 4 minor injuries). The whole city speed reduction scenario more than doubled the annual benefits, and was the only scenario that contributed to a reduction in mortality from road traffic crashes (one death per two years). Implementing 30 km/h speed limits in a city yields health benefits due to reduction in road traffic crashes and noise exposure. We found that the benefit from noise reduction was more relevant than safety benefits.

A review of exposure assessment methods for epidemiological studies of health effects related to industrially contaminated sites.

BACKGROUND: this paper is based upon work from COST Action ICSHNet. Health risks related to living close to industrially contaminated sites (ICSs) are a public concern. Toxicology-based risk assessment of single contaminants is the main approach to assess health risks, but epidemiological studies which investigate the relationships between exposure and health directly in the affected population have contributed important evidence. Limitations in exposure assessment have substantially contributed to uncertainty about associations found in epidemiological studies. OBJECTIVES: to examine exposure assessment methods that have been used in epidemiological studies on ICSs and to provide recommendations for improved exposure assessment in epidemiological studies by comparing exposure assessment methods in epidemiological studies and risk assessments. METHODS: after defining the multi-media framework of exposure related to ICSs, we discussed selected multi-media models applied in Europe. We provided an overview of exposure assessment in 54 epidemiological studies from a systematic review of hazardous waste sites; a systematic review of 41 epidemiological studies on incinerators and 52 additional studies on ICSs and health identified for this review. RESULTS: we identified 10 multi-media models used in Europe primarily for risk assessment. Recent models incorporated estimation of internal biomarker levels. Predictions of the models differ particularly for the routes 'indoor air inhalation' and 'vegetable consumption'. Virtually all of the 54 hazardous waste studies used proximity indicators of exposure, based on municipality or zip code of residence (28 studies) or distance to a contaminated site (25 studies). One study used human biomonitoring. In virtually all epidemiological studies, actual land use was ignored. In the 52 additional studies on contaminated sites, proximity indicators were applied in 39 studies, air pollution dispersion modelling in 6 studies, and human biomonitoring in 9 studies. Exposure assessment in epidemiological studies on incinerators included indicators (presence of source in municipality and distance to the incinerator) and air dispersion modelling. Environmental multi-media modelling methods were not applied in any of the three groups of studies. CONCLUSIONS: recommendations for refined exposure assessment in epidemiological studies included the use of more sophisticated exposure metrics instead of simple proximity indicators where feasible, as distance from a source results in misclassification of exposure as it ignores key determinants of environmental fate and transport, source characteristics, land use, and human consumption behaviour. More validation studies using personal exposure or human biomonitoring are needed to assess misclassification of exposure. Exposure assessment should take more advantage of the detailed multi-media exposure assessment procedures developed for risk assessment. The use of indicators can be substantially improved by linking definition of zones of exposure to existing knowledge of extent of dispersion. Studies should incorporate more often land use and individual behaviour.